AAA expects 81.5 million Americans to travel at least 50 miles from home over Thanksgiving 2026, between Tuesday 24 and Monday 30 November. That is a fraction below last year's record and ends a three-year streak of new highs. The reason is cost: average domestic airfares are up 17%, and the national gas average is about 90 cents higher than a year ago.
The short version
- Travellers: 81.5 million, down about 0.1% from 2025.
- By car: 72.9 million, nearly 90% of the total.
- By air: 5.96 million domestic flyers, down 0.2%.
- Bus, train and cruise: 2.6 million, up 4.1%, the only growing category.
- Airfare: domestic round trips average $800, up 17%.
- Gas: $3.94 a gallon on 11 November, against $3.07 a year earlier. Even with prices falling, this is on course to be the most expensive Thanksgiving ever at the pump.
- Worst roads: Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday, and Sunday and Monday after it.
AAA's Thanksgiving 2026 forecast
| Mode | 2026 forecast | Change on 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Car | 72.9 million | down from 73.1 million |
| Air | 5.96 million | -0.2% |
| Bus, train, cruise | 2.6 million | +4.1% |
| Total | 81.5 million | about -0.1% |
Sources differ slightly on 2025's total (81.6 or 81.8 million), but every version has 2026 a little lower.
Will gas prices go down before Thanksgiving?
They already are, from a very high level. The national average for regular was $4.36 a month ago and $3.94 on 11 November, according to AAA. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan expects it to keep falling, possibly into the $3.70s or even $3.60s by the holiday.
That would still beat the previous Thanksgiving Day record of $3.58, set in 2022. August, September and October 2026 each set monthly records at the pump, driven by oil prices during the Iran war. Crude fell sharply after the midterms, which is why prices are now easing.
| Date | National average, regular |
|---|---|
| mid-October 2026 | $4.36 |
| 10 November 2026 | $3.98 |
| 11 November 2026 | $3.94 |
| Thanksgiving 2026 (GasBuddy estimate) | high $3.60s to $3.70s |
| Thanksgiving Day record (2022) | $3.58 |
Is it cheaper to drive or fly?
For a family, almost always drive. At $800 per round-trip ticket, four airfares cost $3,200. A 600-mile round trip in a car doing 28 miles to the gallon uses about 21 gallons, roughly $80 at $3.80. Even adding a night in a hotel, driving wins by a distance for anyone within a day's drive.
When is the best time to leave?
Transportation analytics firm INRIX expects the worst congestion on:
- Tuesday 24 November and Wednesday 25 November afternoons, outbound
- Sunday 29 November and Monday 30 November, the return
Traffic in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and Boston could be more than double normal. The usual advice holds: leave early in the morning, or travel on Thanksgiving Day itself, when roads are typically quietest.
Where are Americans going for Thanksgiving?
Domestic: Orlando tops AAA's list, followed by Fort Lauderdale and Miami, then Anaheim and Los Angeles, and New York. Detroit and Dallas-Fort Worth make the top ten because of the Thanksgiving Day NFL games.
International: Budapest leads, followed by Cancun, Paris, Barcelona and Puerto Vallarta.
Hertz expects its busiest pick-up days to be the Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday, with the highest demand in Orlando, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Denver.
Will the FAA outage affect Thanksgiving flights?
The nationwide ground stop on Friday 13 November cancelled more than 15,000 flights over the weekend, but the FAA expected airlines to be back to full schedules by Sunday night, more than a week before the holiday. The risk to watch is not a repeat but ordinary fragility: a full system has no spare aircraft or crews to absorb a storm. Book the earliest flight of the day where you can, avoid tight connections, and know your refund rights if a flight is cancelled.
Five ways to cut the cost
- Fill up before you hit the interstate. Stations on major highways and in airport areas routinely charge more.
- Use a gas price app on the route rather than at your destination.
- Fly on the holiday itself if you must fly. Thanksgiving Day and the following Saturday are often cheaper than the Wednesday and Sunday peaks.
- Check the bus and train. It is the only mode AAA sees growing, partly because it is the one where prices have not jumped.
- Book rental cars now. Prices rise steeply as the Tuesday and Wednesday pick-ups fill up.
Frequently asked questions
How many people will travel for Thanksgiving 2026?
AAA forecasts 81.5 million people travelling at least 50 miles from home between 24 and 30 November 2026.
How much are Thanksgiving flights in 2026?
AAA says domestic round-trip Thanksgiving fares average $800, up 17% from 2025.
What will gas cost on Thanksgiving 2026?
GasBuddy expects the national average to fall into the $3.60s or $3.70s, which would still be the highest Thanksgiving price on record.
What is the worst day to drive for Thanksgiving?
INRIX expects the worst traffic on the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and on the Sunday and Monday after.
Sources
AAA forecast as reported by QUE.com and Pirates and Princesses; KEYC on AAA gas prices; Quartz; The Auto Wire. As of 15 November 2026.
