The federal government is funded until 11 December 2026 under a stopgap passed in September. If Congress does not pass another funding bill by then, a shutdown begins on 12 December, three weeks before a new Democratic majority takes over.
This time the fight is not just about spending levels. It is about the Iran war, and whether a lame-duck Congress will keep paying for it.
The short version
- Deadline: funding runs out on Friday 11 December. A lapse would begin on Saturday 12 December.
- The war money: Trump wants a $350 billion defence package passed by party-line reconciliation. A separate $87.6 billion supplemental for the Iran war is also pending.
- The opposition: Democratic Senators Duckworth, Bennet, Van Hollen and Sanders say they will oppose any stopgap that lets the war continue.
- Republican doubts: Senators Collins and McConnell have said they do not expect another package. Sen. Mike Rounds said the push would "absolutely" raise the risk of a shutdown.
- The clock: fewer than 20 Senate legislative days remain before the new Congress on 3 January.
- Recent history: the 43-day shutdown that ended on 12 November 2025 was the longest in US history.
What is the $350 billion defence package?
President Trump has asked Republicans to use budget reconciliation, which needs only a simple majority in the Senate, to pass a $350 billion package for the Pentagon "IMMEDIATELY". Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says $350 billion is the minimum needed.
The problems are arithmetic and time:
- The House has passed a budget blueprint with only $60 billion for the Pentagon, which has stalled in the Senate.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he is "open" to a party-line bill but believes the House must act first.
- Senate Appropriations chair Susan Collins says her support depends on whether it is "narrowly focused or whether it's broad."
- Reconciliation takes weeks of procedure. Republicans have weeks, not months.
Why would there be a shutdown?
A normal stopgap, called a continuing resolution, needs 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans do not have 60 seats, so they need Democratic votes. Four Democratic senators have said they will vote against any stopgap that lets the Iran war continue. With other Democrats emboldened by the midterm results, that bloc could be enough to block a bill.
Democrats argue Congress never authorised the war, and that the $87.6 billion supplemental pays for a conflict lawmakers did not approve. Republicans argue that cutting funding while troops are deployed is irresponsible.
What are the possible outcomes?
| Scenario | What happens |
|---|---|
| Short stopgap into January | Pushes the fight to the new Democratic Congress. The most common way lame-duck sessions end |
| Full-year stopgap | Funds the government at current levels through September 2027 |
| Stopgap with war-funding limits | A compromise Democrats could accept, but harder for Trump to sign |
| Shutdown from 12 December | If no bill passes or the President vetoes one |
How would a government shutdown affect me?
Based on past shutdowns:
- Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments continue. They are not funded by annual appropriations.
- Air travel continues, but air traffic controllers and TSA officers work without pay. In past long shutdowns that has caused delays. After the 13 November FAA ground stop, the system has little slack.
- The mail keeps running. The Postal Service is self-funded.
- Passports, some permits and federal loan processing slow down, including some SBA lending.
- National parks may close or run without staff.
- Economic data stops. If the BLS shuts, the November jobs and inflation reports could be delayed, as happened in 2025. That shutdown is why the October 2026 CPI has no annual inflation rate.
- Federal workers and contractors go unpaid. Workers usually receive back pay; contractors often do not.
What should businesses do?
If you sell to the federal government, depend on federal permits, or have an SBA loan in process:
- List your federal dependencies: contracts, grants, permits, licences, loan approvals, and customers who are federal employees.
- Get anything urgent filed before 11 December.
- Model a three to six week gap in federal payments in your cash flow forecast. The 2025 shutdown lasted 43 days.
- Read your contract's stop-work clause if you are a federal contractor, and keep a record of costs incurred during any stoppage.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next government shutdown deadline?
Friday 11 December 2026. A shutdown would begin on 12 December if no funding bill is enacted.
Will there be a government shutdown in December 2026?
It is uncertain. The most common outcome in a lame-duck session is a short stopgap, but four Democratic senators have said they will oppose any bill that keeps funding the Iran war, which makes a shutdown more likely than usual.
What is the $350 billion package?
A defence funding package Trump wants Republicans to pass through budget reconciliation before Democrats take control of Congress on 3 January 2027.
Do Social Security checks stop in a shutdown?
No. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments continue during a shutdown.
Sources
The Fiscal Times; Jewish Insider on GOP scepticism; The Hill; Al-Monitor; Bloomberg Government. As of 15 November 2026.
