Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday 27 November, the day after Thanksgiving, and Cyber Monday on 30 November. The National Retail Federation expects US holiday sales to cross $1 trillion for the first time, even with shoppers worried about prices, tariffs and the cost of credit.
The short version
- Dates: Thanksgiving Thursday 26 November, Black Friday 27 November, Small Business Saturday 28 November, Cyber Monday 30 November.
- Holiday forecast: the NRF projects November and December retail sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% on 2025's $972 billion.
- Online: Adobe forecasts about $12.9 billion of US online spending on Black Friday, up roughly 9%.
- Best discounts: TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture, with electronics discounts peaking around 30%, according to Adobe.
- Seasonal jobs: retailers plan to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers.
- Tariffs: shoppers expect higher prices, but some retailers stocked up early and some may pass tariff refunds on.
When is Black Friday 2026?
| Day | Date |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | Thursday 26 November |
| Black Friday | Friday 27 November |
| Small Business Saturday | Saturday 28 November |
| Cyber Monday | Monday 30 November |
| Christmas Day | Friday 25 December |
Most big retailers have already started "early Black Friday" sales, and many will run deals through the whole week from Monday 23 November.
How much will Americans spend this holiday season?
The NRF forecasts $1.013 trillion in holiday retail sales for 1 November to 31 December, a 4.2% rise. That is faster growth than 2025's 3.1%. The figure excludes car dealers, gas stations and restaurants, and it measures dollars, not items, so part of the growth is simply higher prices.
"Consumers will prioritise the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets," said NRF chief executive Matthew Shay. Chief economist Mark Mathews warned that inflation, fuel costs and pressure on household budgets will hit income groups differently.
That split matters. The economy grew at a strong 3.4% in the third quarter, but spending is increasingly carried by higher-income households, and much of it is being financed by lower savings rather than rising real income.
Where are the best Black Friday deals in 2026?
Adobe expects the deepest online discounts in:
| Category | What to expect |
|---|---|
| Electronics and TVs | the biggest discounts, peaking around 30% |
| Toys | deep discounts, usually best on Black Friday and Cyber Monday |
| Apparel | strong discounts, with apparel prices barely rising in the latest CPI |
| Appliances | heavily discounted |
| Furniture | heavily discounted |
Two tips that hold every year: use a price tracker to check whether a "deal" is below the item's normal price over the past three months, and remember that the best price on many items comes on Cyber Monday, not Friday.
How do tariffs affect Black Friday prices?
In two directions at once.
Up: retailers price on what it will cost to replace stock, not on what they paid for it. Even goods imported before tariff increases can be priced higher. NRF surveys found a large majority of shoppers expecting higher prices because of tariffs.
Down: many retailers imported early to beat tariff increases and need to clear that stock. Bain has suggested some may pass tariff refunds on to shoppers, now that refunds of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court are flowing. If you import, our guide to claiming IEEPA tariff refunds explains how.
Playbook for small retailers
Small Business Saturday is on 28 November. If you sell online or in a shop, five things are worth doing this week:
- Discount what you have too much of, not everything. A sitewide 25% off gives margin away on items that would have sold anyway.
- Price against replacement cost. If restocking an item will cost 15% more in January, a deep discount now may be a loss.
- Check your site speed on a phone. Most Black Friday traffic is mobile, and slow pages lose sales. See our guide to Core Web Vitals and what slow pages cost.
- Staff for returns, not just sales. January returns are where holiday margin quietly disappears.
- Plan for trading-down shoppers. They want value, not just discounts. Our piece on pricing for trading-down consumers has the detail.
Frequently asked questions
What date is Black Friday 2026?
Friday 27 November 2026. Cyber Monday is Monday 30 November.
How much will people spend on Black Friday 2026?
Adobe forecasts about $12.9 billion in US online spending on Black Friday, up around 9% on 2025.
Will tariffs make Black Friday more expensive?
Shoppers expect higher prices, and retailers price on replacement cost. But early stockpiling and possible tariff refunds mean deep discounts are still expected in electronics, toys, apparel and home goods.
How many seasonal workers are retailers hiring?
The NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires, compared with about 356,000 in 2025.
Sources
NRF forecast via Retail Insight Network; NRF winter holiday FAQs; Cartflows Black Friday statistics for the Adobe forecast; AOL on tariffs and Black Friday; National Jeweler. As of 15 November 2026.
